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Recent polling in Maryland shows a shift in support away from Republican Governor Larry Hogan in his bid for a U.S. Senate seat, indicating decreased chances for the GOP to flip the traditionally Democratic state. The poll found that the Democratic nominee, Angela Alsobrooks, was leading Mr. Hogan by a significant margin, in contrast to earlier surveys that had him in the lead. Despite efforts from Republican leaders like Senator Mitch McConnell and former President Donald Trump to support Hogan, the trend of popular “crossover” governors failing in Senate races may be playing out once again.
Historical examples like Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen and Montana Governor Steve Bullock losing Senate bids after successful gubernatorial terms highlight the potential challenges faced by Hogan. Even Republicans like Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle failed in Senate races after popular terms as governor, suggesting a larger trend of crossover governors struggling to transition to the Senate.
While Hogan may still have a chance to make Maryland competitive and win the Senate seat, the broader trend of a lack of success for crossover governors in Senate races poses a challenge. The rarity of crossover senators and the increasing partisanship in Senate races may make it difficult for Hogan to overcome the shifting political landscape in Maryland. With partisanship playing a larger role in Senate elections and governors having more ability to distance themselves from national issues, the road to the Senate for popular governors like Hogan may be more challenging than anticipated.
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